Epidemiology and Health

COVID-19: Original Article

Direct indicators of social distancing effectiveness in COVID-19 outbreak stages: a correlational analysis of case contacts and population mobility in Korea: Sojin Choi, Chanhee Kim, Kun-Hee Park, Jong-Hun Kim; Epidemiol Health. 2023;45:e2023065. Published online July 10, 2023; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2023065

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Abstract Summary PDF Supplementary Material: Abstract
OBJECTIVES
The effectiveness of social distancing during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been evaluated using the magnitude of changes in population mobility. This study aimed to investigate a direct indicator—namely, the number of close contacts per patient with confirmed COVID-19.
METHODS
From week 7, 2020 to week 43, 2021, population movement changes were calculated from the data of two Korean telecommunication companies and Google in accordance with social distancing stringency levels. Data on confirmed cases and their close contacts among residents of Gyeonggi Province, Korea were combined at each stage. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted to compare the movement data with the change in the number of contacts for each confirmed case calculated by stratification according to age group. The reference value of the population movement data was set using the value before mid-February 2020, considering each data’s characteristics.
RESULTS
In the age group of 18 or younger, the number of close contacts per confirmed case decreased or increased when the stringency level was strengthened or relaxed, respectively. In adults, the correlation was relatively low, with no correlation between the change in the number of close contacts per confirmed case and the change in population movement after the commencement of vaccination for adults.
CONCLUSIONS
The effectiveness of governmental social distancing policies against COVID-19 can be evaluated using the number of close contacts per confirmed case as a direct indicator, especially for each age group. Such an analysis can facilitate policy changes for specific groups.; Summary

Korean summary
1. 사회적 거리두기의 효과를 간접적인 자료인 이동통신사와 구글데이터를 이용하여 인구 이동성 변화의 크기를 평가하였고, 직접적인 자료인 역학조사서의 확진자 1인당 밀접 접촉자 수를 산출하여 비교 평가하였다. 2. 18세 이하 연령대는 사회적 거리두기의 강화 또는 완화 단계에 따라 확진자 1인당 밀접 접촉자 수가 민감하게 변동되었으나, 성인의 경우에는 덜 민감하게 변동되었다. 3. 역학조사서에 기반하여 시계열 자료로 재가공한 확진자 1인당 밀접 접촉자 수는 사회적 거리두기 정책의 효과를 평가하는 직접적인 평가 지표로 사용될 수 있기에 충분히 검토되어야 한다.

Key Message
1. The study assessed social distancing's effectiveness by analyzing population mobility changes through mobile operator and Google data. And it was also compared with the number of close contacts per confirmed COVID-19 case based on the epidemiological survey report. 2. Younger age groups were more influenced by the social distancing policy in close contacts per confirmed COVID-19 case than adults. 3. The study suggests using close contacts per confirmed COVID-19 case from the epidemiological survey report as a direct measure of social distancing policy effectiveness.

COVID-19: Original Article

Viral shedding patterns of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections by periods of variant predominance and vaccination status in Gyeonggi Province, Korea: Gawon Choi, Ah-Young Lim, Sojin Choi, Kunhee Park, Soon Young Lee, Jong-Hun Kim; Epidemiol Health. 2023;45:e2023008. Published online December 21, 2022; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2023008

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Abstract Summary PDF Supplementary Material: Abstract
OBJECTIVES
We compared the viral cycle threshold (Ct) values of infected patients to better understand viral kinetics by vaccination status during different periods of variant predominance in Gyeonggi Province, Korea.
METHODS
We obtained case-specific data from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance system, Gyeonggi in-depth epidemiological report system, and Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service from January 2020 to January 2022. We defined periods of variant predominance and explored Ct values by analyzing viral sequencing test results. Using a generalized additive model, we performed a nonlinear regression analysis to determine viral kinetics over time.
RESULTS
Cases in the Delta variant’s period of predominance had higher viral shedding patterns than cases in other periods. The temporal change of viral shedding did not vary by vaccination status in the Omicron-predominant period, but viral shedding decreased in patients who had completed their third vaccination in the Delta-predominant period. During the Delta-predominant and Omicron-predominant periods, the time from symptom onset to peak viral shedding based on the E gene was approximately 2.4 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2 to 2.5) and 2.1 days (95% CI, 2.0 to 2.1), respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
In one-time tests conducted to diagnose COVID-19 in a large population, although no adjustment for individual characteristics was conducted, it was confirmed that viral shedding differed by the predominant strain and vaccination history. These results show the value of utilizing hundreds of thousands of test data produced at COVID-19 screening test centers.; Summary

Korean summary
코로나19 선별진료소에서는 확진 검사를 위해 수십만 건에서 수백만 건까지의 일회성 검사를 시행해왔다. 검사를 받은 개인의 특성과 관련된 데이터 제한으로 인해 분석 시 이를 보정할 수는 없지만, 대규모 인구집단에서 얻어진 검사 결과는 SARS-CoV-2 배출 특성을 평가하는 데 활용될 수 있다. 이번 연구에서는 바이러스 변이의 종류와 백신 접종 이력에 따라 증상 발생 후 시간 경과에 따라 바이러스 배출량이 달라지는 것을 확인하였다. 이러한 대규모 선별 검사자료는 향후에도 유용하게 활용 가능하다.

Key Message
The screening center for COVID-19 has conducted hundreds of thousands to millions of one-time confirmation tests for diagnosis. Although individual characteristics cannot be adjusted for due to data limitations, the test results from a large population can still be utilized to evaluate SARS-CoV-2 shedding. We confirmed that viral shedding varied over time after symptom onset, depending on the type of virus variant and vaccination history.

COVID-19: Brief Communication

Clinical severity according to the primary infection variant in patients with suspected SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in Korea: Myung-Jae Hwang, Insob Hwang, Chungmin Park, Hanul Park, Taejong Son, Jong-Hun Kim; Epidemiol Health. 2023;45:e2023007. Published online December 21, 2022; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2023007

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Abstract Summary PDF

Abstract

OBJECTIVES
We aimed to evaluate the severity of suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection according to variants of concern in Gyeongsangbuk-do and Daegu, Korea.

METHODS

The database of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases reported from epidemiological investigations through the integrated system operated by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, from January 20, 2020 to May 7, 2022 was combined with data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service system. The severity odds ratio (SOR) in secondary infection episodes compared with primary infection was estimated using a generalized linear model with a binomial distribution.

RESULTS

In all patients, the SOR of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection was 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.95), and the severity was lower than in the first infection. Patients who had been vaccinated within 91 days showed a more attenuated SOR (0.85; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98). However, despite vaccination, in patients with both primary and secondary infections caused by the Omicron variant, the severity was reduced to a lesser extent than in patients primarily infected with other variants.

CONCLUSIONS

We could make efforts to relieve the severity of COVID-19 in vulnerable populations, in which death is more likely, by recommending booster vaccinations in case of a resurgence.

Summary

Korean summary
국내 COVID-19 확진자들의 중증도 증가 위험은 재감염(2차감염) 시 감소하였지만, 1차감염과 재감염 모두 오미크론론 변이가 우세하였던 시기인 경우에는 오히려 증가하였다. 특히 마지막 예방접종일로부터 91일 이상인 확진자들과 60세이상 인구에서는 중증도 증가 위험이 더 높았다. 우리는 COVID-19가 장기화됨에 따라 취약인구집단에 대해 추가 예방접종을 권고함으로써 재감염시 중증도가 증가하는 것을 예방해야 할 필요가 있다.

Key Message
As COVID-19 prolongs, there is a need to recommend booster vaccinations for vulnerable populations to prevent the potential for increased severity in the event of reinfection.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

Changes in the intrinsic severity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 according to the emerging variant: a nationwide study from February 2020 to June 2022, including comparison with vaccinated populations
Boyeong Ryu, Eunjeong Shin, Dong Hwi Kim, HyunJu Lee, So Young Choi, Seong-Sun Kim, Il-Hwan Kim, Eun-Jin Kim, Sangwon Lee, Jaehyun Jeon, Donghyok Kwon, Sungil Cho
BMC Infectious Diseases.2024;[Epub] CrossRef
The effect of shortening the quarantine period and lifting the indoor mask mandate on the spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modeling approach
Jung Eun Kim, Heejin Choi, Minji Lee, Chang Hyeong Lee
Frontiers in Public Health.2023;[Epub] CrossRef
Previous infection with seasonal coronaviruses does not protect male Syrian hamsters from challenge with SARS-CoV-2
Magen E. Francis, Ethan B. Jansen, Anthony Yourkowski, Alaa Selim, Cynthia L. Swan, Brian K. MacPhee, Brittany Thivierge, Rachelle Buchanan, Kerry J. Lavender, Joseph Darbellay, Matthew B. Rogers, Jocelyne Lew, Volker Gerdts, Darryl Falzarano, Danuta M. S
Nature Communications.2023;[Epub] CrossRef

Original Articles

Decreased birth weight after prenatal exposure to wildfires on the eastern coast of Korea in 2000: En-Joo Jung, Ah-Young Lim, Jong-Hun Kim; Epidemiol Health. 2023;45:e2023003. Published online December 9, 2022; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2023003

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Abstract Summary PDF Supplementary Material

Abstract

OBJECTIVES
In April 2000, a series of wildfires occurred simultaneously in five adjacent small cities located on the eastern coast of Korea. These wildfires burned approximately 23,794 hectares of forestland over several days. We investigated the effects of prenatal exposure to the by-products generated by wildfire disasters on birth weight.

METHODS

Birth weight data were obtained for 1999-2001 from the birth registration database of the Korean National Statistical Office and matched with the zip code and exposed/unexposed pregnancy week for days of the wildfires. Generalized linear models were then used to assess the associations between birth weight and exposure to wildfires after adjusting for fetal sex, gestational age, parity, maternal age, maternal education, paternal education, and average exposed atmospheric temperature.

RESULTS

Compared with unexposed pregnancies before and after the wildfires, mean birth weight decreased by 41.4 g (95% confidence interval [CI], -72.4 to -10.4) after wildfire exposure during the first trimester, 23.2 g (95% CI, -59.3 to 13.0) for exposure during the second trimester, and 27.0 g (95% CI, -63.8 to 9.8) during the third trimester. In the adjusted model for infants exposed in utero during any trimester, the mean birth weight decreased by 32.5 g (95% CI, -53.2 to -11.7).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a 1% reduction in birth weight after wildfire exposure. Thus, exposure to by-products generated during a wildfire disaster during pregnancy may slow fetal growth and cause developmental delays.

Summary

Korean summary
산불로 인한 연소 부산물에 대한 태아기 노출이 출생 체중에 미치는 영향을 조사하였다. 산불 발생 전후로 연소 부산물에 노출되지 않았던 신생아와 비교하였을 때, 노출된 신생아의 평균 출생 체중은 32.5g (-53.2~-11.7g) 감소하였다. 임신 중 산불로 인한 연소 부산물에 대한 노출은 태아 성장을 느리게 하거나 발달 지연을 일으킬 수 있다.

Key Message
The study investigated the effects of prenatal exposure to by-products generated by wildfire disasters on birth weight. Compared to newborns who were not prenatally exposed to wildfire byproducts, exposed newborns had a 32.5 g (-53.2 to -11.7 g) reduction in birth weight. Exposure to wildfire by-products during pregnancy can slow fetal growth or cause developmental delays.

Citations

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Natural Disaster Epidemiology and Reproductive Health
Emily W. Harville, Bianka Northland
Current Epidemiology Reports.2023; 10(4): 169. CrossRef

Effect of socioeconomic disparities on the risk of COVID-19 in 8 metropolitan cities in the Korea: a community-based study: Myung-Jae Hwang, Shin Young Park, Tae-Ho Yoon, Jinhwa Jang, Seon-Young Lee, Myeongsu Yoo, Yoo-Yeon Kim, Hae-Kwan Cheong, Donghyok Kwon, Jong-Hun Kim; Epidemiol Health. 2022;44:e2022107. Published online November 15, 2022; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2022107

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Abstract Summary PDF Supplementary Material

Abstract

OBJECTIVES
Socioeconomic disparities have been reported as major risk factors contributing to the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at the community level. We conducted an epidemiological study on COVID-19 incidence risk using area-based deprivation indices (DIs) reflecting the characteristics of the susceptible population.

METHODS

A database of the confirmed COVID-19 cases in 8 metropolitan cities in Korea from January 20, 2020 to December 31, 2021 was combined with area-based DI scores and standardized prevalence rates of diabetes and hypertension from the Korean Community Health Survey. Relative risk (RR) levels were estimated using a generalized linear model with a Poisson distribution by age group.

RESULTS

The risk of COVID-19 incidence generally increased with increasing age, especially in patients aged ≥75 years. The RR of COVID-19 incidence per interquartile range increment of the composite deprivation index (composite DI) was 1.54 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34 to 1.70). Notably, in the first wave, the risk of COVID-19 incidence was approximately 3 times higher in the region with the lowest socioeconomic status than in the region with the highest status (RR, 3.08; 95% CI, 2.42 to 3.78 based on the the composite DI and RR, 3.13; 95% CI, 2.53 to 3.83 based on the social deprivation index).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides scientific evidence that socioeconomic deprivation is an important risk factor for the spread of COVID-19. This finding suggests that a mid-term to long-term strategy is needed to protect susceptible populations and reduce the burden of COVID-19 in the community.

Summary

Korean summary
한국의 COVID-19 발생 위험은 지역박탈수준이 높은 지역에서 증가하였고, 특히 유행 초기 75세이상 연령층에서 뚜렷하게 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 지역사회수준에서 사회경제적 여건을 고려하여 취약집단에서의 발생위험을 감소시키기 위해 중장기 전략을 세워야 한다는 것을 시사한다.

Key Message
There is a need to develop long-term strategies to reduce the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks in vulnerable populations in areas with poor socioeconomic conditions

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The current state of graphical abstracts and how to create good graphical abstracts
Jieun Lee, Jeong-Ju Yoo
Science Editing.2023; 10(1): 19. CrossRef
Social deprivation and SARS-CoV-2 testing: a population-based analysis in a highly contrasted southern France region
Jordi Landier, Léa Bassez, Marc-Karim Bendiane, Pascal Chaud, Florian Franke, Steve Nauleau, Fabrice Danjou, Philippe Malfait, Stanislas Rebaudet, Jean Gaudart
Frontiers in Public Health.2023;[Epub] CrossRef

Data Profile

Establishment of the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey air pollution study dataset for the researchers on the health impact of ambient air pollution: Myung-Jae Hwang, Jisun Sung, Miryoung Yoon, Jong-Hun Kim, Hui-Young Yun, Dae-Ryun Choi, Youn-Seo Koo, Kyungwon Oh, Sungha Yun, Hae-Kwan Cheong; Epidemiol Health. 2021;43:e2021015. Published online February 8, 2021; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2021015

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Abstract

To provide a nationwide representative dataset for the study on health impact of air pollution, we combined the data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with the daily air quality and weather data by matching the date of examination and the residential address of the participants. The database of meteorological factors and air quality as sources of exposure data were estimated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality model. The linkage dataset was merged by three ways; administrative district, si-gun-gu (city, county, and district), and geocode (in latitude and longitude coordinate units) based on the participants’ residential address, respectively. During the study period, the exposure dataset of 85,018 individuals (38,306 men and 46,712 women) whose examination dates were recorded were obtained. According to the definition of exposure period, the dataset was combined with the data on short-term, mid-term, and long-term exposure to air pollutants and the meteorological indices. Calculation of the daily merged dataset’s average air pollution linked by si-gun-gu and geocode units showed similar results. This study generated a daily average of meteorological indices and air pollution exposure dataset for all regions including rural and remote areas in Korea for 11 years. It is expected to provide a platform for the researchers studying the health impact of air pollution and climate change on the representative population and area, which may facilitate the establishment of local health care plans by understanding the residents’ health status at the local as well as national level.

Summary

Korean summary
-2007년부터 2017년까지 11년간 국민건강영양조사의 검진조사 대상자의 검진일자와 지리정보를 기준으로 85,018명에 대해 기상 및 대기오염 모델링 자료를 결합하여 조사 대상자의 거주지주소를 이용하여 시·군·구 단위와 주소 기반 위경도 좌표를 기준으로 각각 노출자료를 결합함. -대기오염의 단기노출, 중기노출, 장기노출의 건강영향을 평가하기 위해 지연효과(lag effect)를 적용하여 각 건강자료와 결합함. -기상 및 대기오염 모델링 자료와 연계된 국민건강영양조사의 활용을 위한 data profile을 제시함.

Key Message
-We built a dataset for air pollution research by combining meteorological and air pollution modeling data through CMAQ for 85,018 individuals based on the date of examination and geographic information of the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey participants for 11 years, from 2007 to 2017. -Each exposure data was combined based on si-gun-gu (city, county, and district) and geocode (in latitude and longitude coordinate units) based on the participants’ residential address. -To evaluate the health effects of short-, medium- and long-term air pollution exposure, the lag values of days, months, and years was applied and combined with each health data. -A data profile was presented for the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey linked to meteorological and air pollution modeling data.

Citations

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Association between ambient particulate matter levels and hypertension: results from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study
Sewhan Na, Jong-Tae Park, Seungbeom Kim, Jinwoo Han, Saemi Jung, Kyeongmin Kwak
Annals of Occupational and Environmental Medicine.2023;[Epub] CrossRef
Effect of Short- to Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Particulate Matter on Cognitive Function in a Cohort of Middle-Aged and Older Adults: KoGES
Jane J. Lee, Ji Hyun Kim, Dae Sub Song, Kyoungho Lee
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2022; 19(16): 9913. CrossRef
Long-Term Effects of Ambient Particulate and Gaseous Pollutants on Serum High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein Levels: A Cross-Sectional Study Using KoGES-HEXA Data
Ji Hyun Kim, Hae Dong Woo, Sunho Choi, Dae Sub Song, Jung Hyun Lee, Kyoungho Lee
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2022; 19(18): 11585. CrossRef
Effects of exposure to ambient air pollution on pulmonary function impairment in Korea: the 2007-2017 Korea National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey
Soo Beom Choi, Sungha Yun, Sun-Ja Kim, Yong Bum Park, Kyungwon Oh
Epidemiology and Health.2021; 43: e2021082. CrossRef

Original Articles

A small window into the status of malaria in North Korea: estimation of imported malaria incidence among visitors from South Korea: Jisun Sung, Hae-Kwan Cheong, Ah-Young Lim, Jong-Hun Kim; Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020068. Published online November 21, 2020; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020068

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Abstract Summary PDF: Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This study aimed to develop hypotheses on trends in malaria incidence in North Korea using malaria incidence among South Korean visitors to North Korea.
METHODS
The number of South Korean tourists who visited Mount Kumgang from 2000 to 2008 and the number of South Korean employees at the Kaesong Industrial Complex from 2005 to 2015 were obtained from the Korean Statistical Information Service. The number of malaria cases among South Koreans who visited North Korea was obtained from a previous report. The incidence of malaria per 100,000 person-years was calculated using these data and compared with the malaria incidence in North Korea derived from published articles.
RESULTS
A high incidence of malaria in 2001 and a sharp decline in the following years were observed in both South and North Korean data. Since then, North Korean data showed a relatively low and stable incidence, but the incidence among South Koreans visiting North Korea increased in 2006. Considering the trends in mass primaquine preventive treatment, floods, and economic growth rate, the incidence of malaria may have increased in North Korea in 2006. Since 2009, the incidence of malaria decreased gradually according to both South and North Korean data.
CONCLUSIONS
The trends of malaria incidence in North Korea could be reflected through its incidence among South Koreans who visited North Korea. For future inter-Korean collaboration aiming to eradicate malaria, we propose that a North Korean malaria monitoring system be established applying this method.; Summary

Korean summary
본 연구는 2000-2008년 금강산을 여행한 대한민국 국민과 2005-2015년 개성공단에서 근무한 대한민국 국민에서의 말라리아 발생률을 추정하여 국제사회에 보고된 북한의 말라리아 발생률과 비교 평가하였다. 향후 남북한의 교류가 활성화 되었을 때 북한을 방문하고 돌아온 국민에서의 말라리아 발생률 자료를 사용하여 북한 현지에서의 말라리아 발생률 현황 추이를 살펴볼 수 있을 것으로 보인다.

Trends of accidental carbon monoxide poisoning in Korea, 1951-2018: Jong-Hun Kim, Ah-Young Lim, Hae-Kwan Cheong; Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020062. Published online August 31, 2020; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020062

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Abstract

OBJECTIVES
Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning from coal briquette combustion has been a major public health problem in Korea. In this study, we estimated the time trends of the consumption of anthracite coal and the number of CO poisoning victims over the past 7 decades, in the context of changes in heating facilities.

METHODS

Using Population and Housing Census data and energy statistics, we estimated the number of houses using briquettes as heating fuel between 1951 and 2018. After estimating the incidence of CO poisoning in housing units by heating facility type, we determined the ratio of the number of household members who experienced CO poisoning to the overall number of household members. Finally, we estimated the distribution of the victims according to poisoning severity, excluding victims of intentional exposure.

RESULTS

We estimated that, overall, over 26 million people experienced CO poisoning between 1951 and 2018 in Korea. The household consumption of anthracite peaked in 1986, but the number of victims of CO poisoning peaked at approximately 1 million people in 1980. From 1951 to 2018, the cumulative number of CO poisoning victims comprised approximately 22,830,000 mild cases, 3,570,000 severe cases, and 65,000 deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

The peak in the number of CO poisoning victims occurred 6 years earlier than the peak in the number of people using briquettes for heating. This gap resulted from improvements in briquette heating systems. This finding provides a quantitative basis for epidemiological studies on the health outcomes of CO poisoning in the Korean population.

Summary

Korean summary
과거에 연탄을 난방 연료로 사용함으로써 발생하였던 일산화탄소 중독 사고는 한국 사회에서 주요한 공중 보건 문제였다. 본 연구에서는 지난 70년간 연탄 소비에 따른 일산화탄소 중독 피해자 규모를 추정하였다. 본 연구에서 산출된 결과들은 일산화탄소 중독으로 인하여 지속적으로 나타날 수 있는 건강 피해에 대한 역학 연구의 정량적 근거를 제공하고 있다.

Citations

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Trends in mortality related to unintentional poisoning in the South Asian region from 1990 to 2019: analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study
Nadeem Ullah Khan, Uzma Khan, Umerdad Khudadad, Asrar Ali, Ahmed Raheem, Shahan Waheed, Junaid Abdul Razzak
BMJ Open.2023; 13(2): e062744. CrossRef
Prevalence of Carbon Monoxide Poisoning and Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy in Korea: Analysis of National Claims Data in 2010–2019
Eunah Han, Gina Yu, Hye Sun Lee, Goeun Park, Sung Phil Chung
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Lina Zhang, Di Wu, Mingyue Xu, Yonghui Bian, Youcun Wang, Guangkai Gao, Qing Sun
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Medicine.2021; 100(16): e25009. CrossRef

Intervention effects in the transmission of COVID-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation: Okyu Kwon, Woo-Sik Son, Jin Yong Kim, Jong-Hun Kim; Epidemiol Health. 2020;42:e2020045. Published online June 23, 2020; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020045

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Abstract Summary PDF Supplementary Material

Abstract

Objectives
In 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) respiratory infection is spreading in Korea. In order to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, infected people must be quickly identified and isolated, and contact with the infected must be blocked early. This study attempted to verify the intervention effects on the spread of an infectious disease by using these measures in a mathematical model.

Methods

We used the susceptible-infectious-recovery (SIR) model for a virtual population group connected by a special structured network. In the model, the infected state (I) was divided into I in which the infection is undetected and Ix in which the infection is detected. The probability of transitioning from an I state to Ix can be viewed as the rate at which an infected person is found. We assumed that only those connected to each other in the network can cause infection. In addition, this study attempted to evaluate the effects of isolation by temporarily removing the connection among these people.

Results

In Scenario 1, only the infected are isolated; in Scenario 2, those who are connected to an infected person and are also found to be infected are isolated as well. In Scenario 3, everyone connected to an infected person are isolated. In Scenario 3, it was possible to effectively suppress the infectious disease even with a relatively slow rate of diagnosis and relatively high infection rate.

Conclusions

During the epidemic, quick identification of the infected is helpful. In addition, it was possible to quantitatively show through a simulation evaluation that the management of infected individuals as well as those who are connected greatly helped to suppress the spread of infectious diseases.

Summary

Korean summary
본 연구는 행위자 기반 모형의 시뮬레이션 평가를 통해 COVID-19 유행 상황에서 비약물적 중재 효과를 정량적으로 제시하였다. 비약물적 중재에 관한 세 가지 시나리오를 통해 제시한 결과에서, COVID-19 감염자를 신속하게 진단하고, 감염자 본인과 접촉자들을 가능한 한 빨리 모두 격리하여 관리하는 것이 감염병 확산을 억제하는데 있어서 보다 효과적이었다.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission and Intervention in South Korea: A Review of Literature
Hyojung Lee, Sol Kim, Minyoung Jeong, Eunseo Choi, Hyeonjeong Ahn, Jeehyun Lee
Yonsei Medical Journal.2023; 64(1): 1. CrossRef
Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A review
Nicola Perra
Physics Reports.2021; 913: 1. CrossRef
Dissection of non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented by Iran, South Korea, and Turkey in the fight against COVID-19 pandemic
Mohammad Keykhaei, Sogol Koolaji, Esmaeil Mohammadi, Reyhaneh Kalantar, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Arya Aminorroaya, Shaghayegh Zokaei, Sina Azadnajafabad, Negar Rezaei, Erfan Ghasemi, Nazila Rezaei, Rosa Haghshenas, Yosef Farzi, Sina Rashedi, Bagher Larijan
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Ambient air quality and subjective stress level using Community Health Survey data in Korea: Myung-Jae Hwang, Hae-Kwan Cheong, Jong-Hun Kim, Youn Seo Koo, Hui-Young Yun; Epidemiol Health. 2018;40:e2018028. Published online June 28, 2018; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2018028

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209 Download
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Abstract Summary PDF Supplementary Material

Abstract

OBJECTIVES
Air pollution causes various disease in exposed populations, and can lead to premorbid health effects manifested as both physical and psychological functional impairment. The present study investigated the subjective stress level in daily life in relation to the level of air pollution.

METHODS

Data from the Community Health Survey (2013), comprising 99,162 men, and 121,273 women residing in 253 healthcare administrative districts, were combined with air pollutant concentration modelling data from the Korean Air Quality Forecasting System, and were stratified by subjective stress levels into five strata for multiple logistic regression. Levels of exposure were divided into five quintiles according to the annual concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and were analyzed using a single-pollutant model using NO2 concentration only, and a multi-pollutant model adjusted for the concentration of particulate matter <10 μm in diameter.

RESULTS

Analysis of men and women in various age groups showed the highest odds ratio (OR) for subjective stress level at the highest NO2 concentration quintile in men and women aged 30–64 years (men: 2.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.12 to 4.01; women: 1.82; 95% CI, 1.32 to 2.51). As the NO2 concentration quintile increased, the OR increased. Men showed higher ORs than women in all strata.

CONCLUSIONS

In the present study, annual NO2 concentrations were found to be associated with subjective stress levels. This association was especially clear among socioeconomically active men and women aged 30-64 years.

Summary

Korean summary
2013년 지역사회건강조사를 이용하여 253개 보건행정지역단위로 Korean Air Quality Forecasting System (KAQFS) 대기물질농도 모델링자료를 결합하여 주관적 스트레스 정도에 따라 5분위로 범주화하여 다항로지스틱회귀을 하였다. 본 연구에서는 연평균 NO2농도와 주관적 스트레스 정도가 관련이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 특히, 사회 경제적 활동이 활발한30세 이상 65세 미만의 남성과 여성에서 관련성이 뚜렷하게 나타났다.

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Jiyoung Shin, Juha Baek, Sumi Chae
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Anne Boudier, Iana Markevych, Bénédicte Jacquemin, Michael J. Abramson, Simone Accordini, Bertil Forsberg, Elaine Fuertes, Judith Garcia-Aymerich, Joachim Heinrich, Ane Johannessen, Bénédicte Leynaert, Isabelle Pin, Valérie Siroux
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Lizan D. Bloemsma, Alet H. Wijga, Jochem O. Klompmaker, Gerard Hoek, Nicole A. H. Janssen, Marieke Oldenwening, Gerard H. Koppelman, Erik Lebret, Bert Brunekreef, Ulrike Gehring
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Soo Beom Choi, Sungha Yun, Sun-Ja Kim, Yong Bum Park, Kyungwon Oh
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Youn-Seo Koo, Dae-Ryun Choi, Hui-Young Yun, Geon-Woo Yoon, Joung-Beom Lee
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MERS-Original Article

Epidemiologic features of the first MERS outbreak in Korea: focus on Pyeongtaek St. Mary’s Hospital: Kyung Min Kim, Moran Ki, Sung-il Cho, Minki Sung, Jin Kwan Hong, Hae-Kwan Cheong, Jong-Hun Kim, Sang-Eun Lee, Changhwan Lee, Keon-Joo Lee, Yong-Shik Park, Seung Woo Kim, Bo Youl Choi; Epidemiol Health. 2015;37:e2015041. Published online September 17, 2015; DOI: https://doi.org/10.4178/epih/e2015041

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Abstract Summary PDF Supplementary Material

Abstract

OBJECTIVES
This study investigated the epidemiologic features of the confirmed cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in Pyeongtaek St. Mary’s Hospital, where the outbreak first began, in order to identify lessons relevant for the prevention and control of future outbreaks.

METHODS

The patients’ clinical symptoms and test results were collected from their medical records. The caregivers of patients were identified by phone calls.

RESULTS

After patient zero (case #1) was admitted to Pyeongtaek St. Mary’s Hospital (May 15-May 17), an outbreak occurred, with 36 cases between May 18 and June 4, 2015. Six patients died (fatality rate, 16.7%). Twenty-six cases occurred in the first-generation, and 10 in the second-generation. The median incubation period was five days, while the median period from symptom onset to death was 12.5 days. While the total attack rate was 3.9%, the attack rate among inpatients was 7.6%, and the inpatients on the eighth floor, where patient zero was hospitalized, had an 18.6% attack rate. In contrast, caregivers and medical staff showed attack rates of 3.3% and 1.1%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The attack rates were higher than those of the previous outbreaks in other countries. The outbreak spread beyond Pyeongtaek St. Mary’s Hospital when four of the patients were moved to other hospitals without appropriate quarantine. The best method of preventing future outbreaks is to overcome the vulnerabilities observed in this outbreak, such as ward crowding, patient migration without appropriate data sharing, and the lack of an initial broad quarantine.

Summary

Korean summary
평택성모병원에서는 총 36명의 메르스 환자가 발생하여 이중 6명이 사망하였다. 또한 평택성모병원 유행의 발병률은 기존에 알려진 것보다 높았다. 한국의 메르스 유행이 시작된 평택성모병원에서 나타난 초기 방역 부족, 적절한 정보공유 없이 환자들이 병원간에 이동하는 것, 혼잡한 병동 문제 등의 감염병 전파 취약점을 극복하는 것이 향후 새로운 감염병 유행을 막을 수 있는 최선의 방법이 될 것이다.

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